Rabu, 26 Juni 2013

Gold continues to realign with commodities

The realignment of gold with other commodity prices is one of the more significant events occurring in global financial markets today, so I have updated the chart (above) I introduced last April.

Last April I also noted the strong gains that equities were starting to register against gold, so the above charts are worth repeating, along with these excerpts from that post:

Over the time period of the second chart above, there have been only two episodes in which stocks strongly outperformed gold over a sustained period: the first, from around 1950 to around 1965, and the second, from late 1982 through 2000. In the first period, real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.5%, which is substantially more than the the 3.1% long-term average growth rate of the U.S. economy. In the second period, real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.7%, well above average. Real GDP growth was below average in the periods during which stocks fell relative to gold, the worst being from 2000 through 2012, when real GDP growth was an annualized 1.6%.
The upturn in stocks is thus a preliminary indicator that the economic fundamentals may be shifting in favor of equities, and that, in turn, would suggest that the long-term outlook for the economy is improving. Probably not immediately, but some time in the next few years we could see some genuine improvement in the economic fundamentals. Markets are always forward looking, and this indicator (the ratio of stocks to gold) could be one of the most forward-looking of all. Let's hope so.

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