U.S. industrial production has not expanded this year, but neither has it collapsed. Eurozone industrial production took a hit beginning last September, but has managed to eke out some gains this year. Not a picture of growth, but not one of global recession either. If the worst that happens is that the U.S. and Eurozone economies remain stagnant for another year, that wouldn't be the end of the world. 5- and 10-yr sovereign yields in the U.S., Eurozone, and Japan are priced to the expectation that growth will be stagnant at best, in my view.
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