Selasa, 06 Agustus 2013

Q2 growth wasn't so weak after all

Thanks to strong growth in U.S. oil production, the U.S. is exporting more and importing less. With June trade data coming in stronger than expected (exports up $4.1 billion and imports down $5.8 billion), trade did not subtract 0.8 percentage points from second quarter growth as BEA estimated in last week's preliminary GDP report. If there are no other revisions, this would mean that growth in the second quarter will be revised to 2.5%, a good deal better than the first estimate of 1.7%.

Imports have been flat for the past few years, while exports have been moving slowly higher. This narrows the trade gap and adds to GDP.

Goods exports are now at a new all-time high and have more than doubled in the past decade.

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