Selasa, 04 September 2012

Quick updates

The ISM manufacturing index came in a bit weaker than expected (49.6 vs. 50.0), but was essentially unchanged from July. The index is fully consistent with a continuation of the relatively slow growth (about 2%) that we have been seeing for the past few years. 

The prices paid index jumped in August, reflecting the rise in commodity prices. If there is any significance to these indices at this point, it is that deflation risk remains very low and the economy is not sliding into a recession.

Construction spending fell in July, but there is no reason to suspect this is anything other than noise. Total construction spending is up a fairly robust 9.3% in the past year; residential is up 17.6%, and nonresidential is up 5.7%. The construction sector is adding to GDP for the first time in six years, and is likely to continue to expand.

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