Kamis, 28 Juni 2012
Jobless claims last week came in as expected. However, as the first chart shows, seasonally adjusted claims have been higher in the second quarter than they were in the first. I don't think this represents anything more than just a slowdown in the pace of economic growth, though some will take it as evidence of an impending recession. I note that unadjusted claims (second chart) were 9.4% below the level of a year ago, suggesting that the trend is still one of gradual improvement in the economic fundamentals.